DOMESTIC TRADE AS A STRUCTURAL FACTOR IN THE POST-WAR RECOVERY OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY

Abstract

Internal trade, acting as a systemic intermediary between income generation and its transformation into effective demand, can play a key role in maintaining the continuity of the economic cycle. At the same time, the issues of its structural stability, pro-cyclicality, and potential as a driver of economic recovery require in-depth theoretical and empirical substantiation. The article is devoted to the study of the structural role of domestic trade in the reproduction model of the economy of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war recovery. It is shown how domestic trade ensures mediation, continuity of the economic cycle and integration of production and consumption processes in the system of transformation of income into effective demand. The mechanism of transmission of the impact of trade activity on macroeconomic dynamics is analyzed and factors of formation of multiplicative effects in related sectors are identified. The structural dynamics of gross domestic product by final use is analyzed, and the strengthening of the role of domestic demand in the formation of the economic configuration in the conditions of loss of part of external markets is revealed. The conditions for maintaining the relative stability of the share of domestic trade in GDP and gross value added during the period of deep geopolitical shock of a full-scale war have been clarified, which proves the adaptive capacity of the industry and the expediency of its integration into the basic reproductive processes of post-war reconstruction. The elasticity of gross value added of trade relative to GDP has been assessed, and trends of moderate pro-cyclicality and leading dynamics in the phase of economic recovery have been identified. The expediency of considering domestic trade as one of the key drivers of the post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy has been substantiated, taking into account its role in the formation of solvent demand and ensuring the fiscal capacity of the state. It has been proven that domestic trade is potentially capable of performing an accelerating function in the processes of stabilizing the macroeconomic system. The results obtained can be used in the formation of strategic approaches to the development of the domestic market and the modernization of trade infrastructure in the conditions of structural transformation of the economy.