SIMULATION SCENARIOS OF MONETARY TRANSMISSION DURING THE CRISIS PERIOD IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of simulation scenarios of monetary transmission during the crisis in Ukraine. Based on the research, a methodological approach to forecasting the consequences of interest rate transmission in Ukraine based on a simulation model has been improved, built as a scenario-regime system that integrates the results of the vector correction model (VECM) and the causal neural network into a single decision-making loop of the NBU. Unlike traditional econometric models, the simulation model uses previously identified causal and dynamic dependencies to reproduce the economy's response to alternative monetary scenarios. Unlike classical DSGE approaches, the proposed simulation model does not require strict assumptions about expectations, takes into account their adaptive nature, estimated in VECM, and allows reflecting nonlinear and asymmetric effects detected by the causal neural network. As a result, the proposed simulation model allows us to evaluate alternative scenarios of monetary policy in shock conditions, analyze the phase variability of the transmission mechanism, and combine the long-term stabilizing role of interest rate policy with the short-term nonlinear effects of inflation expectations and currency shocks. The results of scenario modeling of Ukraine's monetary policy during the period of structural shock and adaptation to the crisis confirm the transformation of the classical paradigm of central banking: in conditions of structural and military shocks, the effectiveness of monetary regulation is determined not by the rigidity of the interest rate, but by the ability of the central bank to form stable expectations, maintain the functioning of the credit channel, and ensure a predictable currency policy. Institutional-communicational and adaptive regimes demonstrate higher macroeconomic efficiency compared to the policy of extreme rigidity, which is of fundamental importance for building a model of post-war economic recovery of Ukraine based on the transition to an institutionally oriented model, in which the stability of expectations, trust in the central bank, and predictability of decisions are not auxiliary, but key instruments of macroeconomic stabilization.