ADAPTIVE DIGITAL MANAGEMENT OF ENTERPRISE INVESTMENT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION TRAJECTORIES

Abstract

The article develops a methodological framework for adaptive digital management of enterprise investment project implementation trajectories, focused on the early detection of critical changes and the economic substantiation of corrective decisions. An original Digital Project State-Space Model (DPSSM) is proposed, which represents the dynamics of project budget, schedule, resource, performance, and financial parameters as an interconnected system of state variables. To forecast adverse trajectory developments, the Project Trajectory Failure Probability (PTFP) indicator is introduced using a discrete hazard function and a matrix of nonlinear factor interactions. Calculations for twelve investment projects revealed substantial differentiation in the probability of transition to a critical state depending on the configuration of accumulated deviations within a current investment project. The Investment Project Loss Propagation Model (IPLPM) is developed to convert forecasted deviations into monetary estimates. The model incorporates primary and secondary losses, foregone cash flows, downtime costs, cascading propagation of deviations, and the time value of money. The results indicate that, for individual projects, the cascading component accounts for more than two-thirds of total economic losses. An optimization model integrating intervention costs, residual losses, resource constraints, and CVaR is constructed to support the selection of managerial responses. The original Optimal Digital Intervention Point (ODIP) indicator determines the economically justified timing of corrective action by minimizing the present expected cost. For the final assessment, the Risk-Adjusted Adaptive Digital Management Value (RADMV) is proposed, incorporating both the economic effect of transition from the AS-IS trajectory to the TO-BE trajectory and the reduction in tail risk. The developed methodological framework establishes a consistent digital management cycle comprising state assessment, critical-transition forecasting, monetization of cascading losses, optimization of managerial responses, and recursive adjustment of project trajectories throughout the enterprise’s investment activities.