ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION ON FORECASTING MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE EMPIRICAL APPROACH

Abstract

In the domestic scientific literature and practice of macroeconomic forecasting, the issue of systematic quantitative assessment of the impact of international information (in particular, indicators of global economic uncertainty) on forecast error remains insufficiently developed: the vast majority of studies focus either on descriptive analysis of individual channels of influence of external shocks, or on technical improvement of the forecast models themselves without explicit consideration of the information component. The article examines the impact of international economic information flows on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasting in an open economy, using Ukraine as the primary case with a comparative reference to European Union countries. The essence of an open economy is revealed as a system deeply embedded in global information, trade and financial flows, and it is shown that the quality of macroeconomic forecasting increasingly depends not only on domestic statistical series but also on the speed, completeness and reliability with which international information is absorbed by forecasting agents – governments, central banks, international financial organizations and independent analytical centers. The theoretical and methodological approaches of domestic and foreign researchers to measuring economic uncertainty and assessing its impact on forecast quality are systematized. The statistical series for 2011-2025 is constructed, combining an indicator of Ukraine’s real GDP forecast error (the absolute difference between the official forecast and the actual outturn) and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU), built on the Baker-Bloom-Davis methodology with reference to the chronology of key crises. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis reveals a statistically significant, yet moderate, relationship between the level of global information uncertainty and the magnitude of the forecast error, a relationship substantially amplified by the idiosyncratic wartime shock of 2022. A comparative analysis with Eurozone countries reveals a considerably closer and more stable relationship between global uncertainty and forecast accuracy in a more institutionally mature open economy. Practical recommendations are substantiated for improving systems of monitoring and processing international information in the macroeconomic forecasting process in Ukraine under conditions of post-war recovery.