STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES OF INSURANCE COMPANIES

Abstract

Domestic insurance companies take a less active part in investment processes so their investments do not fully meet the needs of the investment market. The activity of the insurance company is to conduct its insurance service and to play the role of an active investor, which determines the specifics of the formation of internal sources of its fi-nancial resources at the expense of income related to insurance and reinsurance activities, income from investing and temporarily free funds, other income Since the amount of capital of insurance companies is determined, in particular, by the amount of collected insurance premiums, in its analysis, we propose to use statistical methods of time series analysis, which are more versatile in terms of building predictive models for any predetermined degree of accuracy (level of trust). The methodology of multiple correlation-regression analysis was used to estimate the amount of finan-cial resources of insurance companies. A multiple linear regression equation is obtained, which expresses the depend-ence of the insurance company capital on the amount of collected insurance premiums by the share of reinsurance and the level of insurance payments. The found regression coefficients allow to determine the influence of the given factor features on the amount of the insurance company capital. The methodology of dynamic series provides an opportunity on the basis of the collected gross insurance premiums for previous years to determine the forecast interval estimate for the next year. In particular, the developed multiple regression equation expresses the dependence of the amount of the insurance company assets on the amount of collected insurance premiums as well as the share of reinsurance and the level of insurance benefits. It follows that the growth of the insurance company assets is positively affected by the amount of collected insurance premiums. In particular, an increase of UAH 1 thousand in insurance premiums without taking into account the influence of two other factors leads to an increase in the insurance company assets by UAH 1.24 thousand.