SIMULATION OF THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING THE VALUE OF A BUSINESS ENTITY

Abstract

In the modern realities of the Ukrainian economy, the activities of business entities are accompanied by various risks. This can lead to a loss of profit, loss of funds or even a general loss. In this regard, there is a need to forecast such performance indicators of business entities, which are the basis for choosing effective methods of reducing the level of financial risk. Possession of such information will allow the business entity to take timely measures to improve its financial condition and prevent bankruptcy. Therefore, in order to avoid this, an urgent task is to determine the market value of the business entity at the moment, as well as to forecast its value for the next period. For this, forecast values of the net financial result (loss) and the value of net assets are used, which can be obtained by both analytical and mechanical equalization methods (moving average method). When forecasting using dynamics series, more attention should be paid to the final values of the series. This can be achieved using the moving average method. Since the use of point forecasts is not without its drawbacks, in order to obtain more accurate results in practical applications, along with the point estimate, you should also specify an interval for a predetermined level of significance, which is the same as building a confidence interval for individual forecast values. In particular, we constructed confidence intervals for both the value of net assets and the net financial result (loss) using the method of averages (average absolute growth). Taking into account the value of both point forecasts and the value of the limits of the confidence interval for the forecast values of the value of net assets and the net financial result, nine values of the value of the business entity are calculated and the there limits are indicated.