THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION CASH FLOWS ON THE DOMESTIC MARKET OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The study examines the country's domestic market as a reflection of the balance within its economic system, a necessary component for sustainable development in the long term. The article aims to investigate migration cash flows to Ukraine during 2020–2025 and their impact on the domestic market, as well as to define strategic directions for the country's migration policy in the context of domestic market development in the post-war period. Drastic changes in Ukraine's domestic market resulting from economic shocks and crisis processes have been identified: a significant reduction in market capacity due to population decline, including forced migration; a drop in consumer demand volumes and its structural reorientation; a shift in consumer behavior towards rational consumption and consumer patriotism; a decrease in the supply of domestic goods; and the active development of the e-commerce segment. It is proposed to view population migration as a manifestation of labor mobility and a consequence of globalization processes in the world economy, as well as a factor simultaneously related to the social, economic, and political determinants of domestic market development. Trends in the forced migration of the Ukrainian population have been analyzed based on OCDЕ data. The study confirms that, during the war, migration cash flows have retained their role as a channel for foreign currency inflows into the country and a source of support for macroeconomic stability and domestic market demand. The impact of Ukrainian population migration on the country's domestic market in 2020–2025 was investigated based on indicators of changes in their volumes, channels, and structure. A trend towards a reduction in remittances from migrants since 2022 was identified due to: slowing economic growth in host countries; the return of male migrants to defend the country; migrants' need to cover expenses for adaptation, living, and supporting non-working family members and students; an increased fiscal burden on income; and high tariffs imposed by payment systems. Changes in the geographical structure of migration cash flows to Ukraine during 2020–2025 were examined. It was found that the digitalization of economic processes has driven changes in the structure of remittance channels to Ukraine, with approximately half being conducted through international payment systems. Emphasis is placed on directing Ukraine's migration policy towards overcoming the labor shortage in the national labor market, facilitating the return of forced migrants to Ukraine, and attracting their funds for economic reconstruction. The creation of incentive mechanisms (programs) is proposed, based on studying the successful migration policy experiences of other countries regarding migrant repatriation by encouraging the attraction of their remittances (investments). Directions for state support in creating a favorable business climate for starting a business in Ukraine are highlighted. Future research should focus on studying the prospects for the country's domestic market development using a scenario approach, as well as modeling its capacity based on the distribution of impact determinants into stimulators and inhibitors.