ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The country's exports are a key factor in the formation of GDP, the growth of aggregate demand and in-dicators of socio-economic development. If the country is the world's leading exporter, this indicates its level of compet-itiveness and stability of the economic situation. Export activity reflects the level of provision of necessary resources and the ability to use them effectively. The article is devoted to the analysis of foreign economic activity impact, in par-ticular exports, on the economic development of Ukraine. The features of international trade development are consid-ered. The analysis of commodity exports and imports of Ukraine is carried out. The dependence of domestic export supplies on the world prices dynamics for the main export commodity groups is emphasized. Econometric models of the dependence of Ukraine's GDP on industrial commodity groups exports and imports are developed. The correlation matrix of employment dependence, average wages in Ukraine, unemployment rate and the number of unemployed popu-lation on commodity exports is built. The dependence of Ukraine's foreign trade on the trends in the international mar-kets development, which takes into account the price sensitivity of individual commodity groups, on the example of the dependence of iron ore domestic exports on the world prices level for iron ore, is investigated. It is emphasized that the raw material or resource orientation of domestic exports in the future may be one of the risks for the economic growth of the country. The study of the impact of general commodity exports from Ukraine on individual indicators of the coun-try's socio-economic development demonstrates that the obtained absolute values of the correlation coefficients for employment, average wages and the unemployment rate show only a moderate direct relationship between exports and the corresponding indicators. This is explained by the raw material orientation of exports, which does not require the creation of a significant number of jobs, as opposed to the production of products with a high level of added value.